Grand old man of Travel

WSJ has a nice profile/interview of Paul Theroux on his new book.

Some nice gems in the interview.

Asked to reminisce about the old days:

"In Iran, in 1973, if you had blue jeans and a watch, people would
follow you down the street, saying 'Please, sir, sell me your watch,
sell me your jeans.' In Mashhad, I sold a pair of jeans for $15, quite
a lot of money, because they were real American blue jeans and everyone
wanted American blue jeans. It was cool. Hippies would go, and bring
three or four pairs and sell them in Iran, in Afghanistan."

Asked what's changed since:

"Some places haven't changed much -- Burma, for
instance. I still call it that . . . Burma. And the places that have
changed radically -- like India -- were hard to understand. It was
hard, hard, to understand where India's going. The people there are
lost in the change. Bangalore, for one, and a lot of other parts of
India can't keep pace with the change. They can't build roads fast
enough, airports fast enough . . . It's as though they're all having a
nervous breakdown

"But I love traveling in India," Mr. Theroux
continues, "because Indians are approachable. If I were traveling in
the U.S. and asked people some of the questions I ask in India, I'd get
a very dusty answer. People would say 'Who are you?' 'You work for the
government?' When you're in India, you can ask, 'Where do you live,
what do you do, how much do you earn, how many children do you have?'
It's the accessible poor. You can do that in Southeast Asia, too. But
in America you can't. Try asking those questions in Jackson,
Mississippi."

About Japan:

"Hmm . . . let me think," he responds, playing with his chin. "Japan
doesn't have suspicion of strangers. They just have an utter lack of
interest. They have a settled sense of themselves as an advanced
culture, a sense that other people aren't doing things right. They
think their food is best, their way of living is best. They lack space,
but in all other ways they feel they've got it figured out."

And then golden one - Singapore:

"Singapore," he says, stressing the "pore" and raising
visions of muggy, tropical discomfort. "Singapore is an example of a
place where people are self-conscious in the presence of foreigners,
because they feel that you're going to criticize them for having
accommodated themselves to their government and this way of living.

"It's like a gated community. You go in definitely
feeling (a) that you don't belong there, (b) that they're not
particularly interested in your staying there, and (c) that they're
very, very defensive. They feel they have to explain why they've
settled for Singapore. And do you know, the sex trade there is booming,
but their boast is, 'These aren't Singapore girls . . . they're
Burmese, they're Vietnamese, they're Filipina . . . but not us!'"

Whither Pakistan?

Lots of changes happening in Pakistan - new President (today); recent Prime Minister and the country continues to go downhill. The Americans have always supported Pakistan as an ally - but of course this was convinient to the Pakistanis. The American money kept flowing and the Pakistanis kept doing what they do best - feeding the Taliban monster.

An article in the NY Times questions Pakistan's loyalty. The Americans seem to have just woken up. But seriously, the direction is taking is really a ticking time bomb with real bad implications for India.

For once, Pakistan needs to get over it's obesession with India and create an identity for itself that different from being "not-India". Grow up guys, there is a whole world out there and lots of problems to solve in both our countries. So let's not waste people by blowing them up.

Does Osama bin Laden Still Matter

Time magazine asks this question in a recent issue...well I don't think so - I don't think he ever mattered. He was nothing more than a small time smuggler (of opium etc) who had some wealth that he was willing to spend on causes he thought would make him the next Imam of Islam. He has visions of grandeur - nothing else. He got lucky once (9/11) and was never been able to repeat anything like that ever. I don't think he will ever, either.

His vision of pan-Arabia Islam with him as the Caliph did not materialize. The Muslim world did not stand up together when America invaded Iraq - quite simply most of Muslim world are engaged in their own battle - to stay in power...

The Geo-politics of $130 oil

Stratfor which always has brilliant analysis of politics, geo-politics and history has a post on the geo-politics of $130 oil:

The big losers are countries that not only have to import oil but
also are heavily industrialized relative to their economy. Countries in
which service makes up a larger sector than manufacturing obviously use
less oil for critical economic functions than do countries that are
heavily manufacturing-oriented. Certainly, consumers in countries such
as the United States are hurt by rising prices. And these countries’
economies might slow. But higher oil prices simply do not have the same
impact that they do on countries that both are primarily
manufacturing-oriented and have a consumer base driving cars.

East Asia has been most affected by the combination of sustained
high oil prices and disruptions in the food supply. Japan, which
imports all of its oil and remains heavily industrialized (along with
South Korea), is obviously affected. But the most immediately affected
is China, where shortages of diesel fuel have been reported. China’s
miracle — rapid industrialization — has now met its Achilles’ heel:
high energy prices.

Now the we know who the losers are, it's time to see the winners - and unsurprisingly the answer is the countries of the Arabian Peninsla and Russia helping the rise of Russia.

The Chinese dilemma is present throughout Asia. But just as Asia is the
big loser because of long-term high oil prices coupled with food
disruptions, Russia is the big winner. Russia is an exporter of natural
gas and oil. It also could be a massive exporter of grains if prices
were attractive enough and if it had the infrastructure (crop failures
in Russia are a thing of the past). Russia has been very careful, under
Vladimir Putin, not to assume that energy prices will remain high and
has taken advantage of high prices to accumulate substantial foreign
currency reserves. That puts them in a doubly-strong position.
Economically, they are becoming major players in global acquisitions.
Politically, countries that have become dependent on Russian energy
exports — and this includes a good part of Europe — are vulnerable,
precisely because the Russians are in a surplus-cash position. They
could tweak energy availability, hurting the Europeans badly, if they
chose. They will not need to. The Europeans, aware of what could
happen, will tread lightly in order to ensure that it doesn’t happen.

Bush Presidency

This cartoon says it all (from the June 12th issue of The Economist):

The Value of social networks

Demographics and the future

Demographics play an important role in determining the future of nations and their evolution. Europe has seen a declining birth rate and it's certain that at least in our life time we will see the decline of Europe and the emergence of Asia along with America as a dominant political and economic force. Given the surging oil prices and the projection of them touching $200 by year end of course brings in one more group as a force - the Middle East.

India's demographics is "heavy" around the centre - meaning that most of her people are young, China's demographic is heavy around the top - a sign of aging population and that's one of the reason experts maintain that India will probably overtake China politically and economically.

But the demographics of the Middle East have been largely ignored. There is an older article (which is now a centre of a free speech argument) which puts a point across quite well that we have a lot to fear from this group.